The probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 rose sharply by 23.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 22.5% to 45.5%.
This large price move was supported by whale activity, which showed a net inflow of $144K into YES contracts. Whale buy volume reached $279K, exceeding sell volume of $135K, across 271 unique whales active in the past day. Total 24-hour volume for this market was $261K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $837K with 865 unique traders participating overall.
The alignment of whale flow with the price increase highlights coordinated buying pressure pushing the market odds higher. Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 45.5% differs substantially from the on-chain Polydata mid-price of 22.5%, indicating a divergence between the on-chain data snapshot and the current Polymarket trading price.
This combination of a large 24-hour price jump and strong whale buying suggests a significant shift in market sentiment toward the likelihood of a US blockade announcement within the specified timeframe. The volume and participation metrics underscore robust engagement from traders and whales responding to recent developments, reinforcing the market’s updated assessment of this geopolitical event.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +23.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 45.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 22.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $144K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $279K / $135K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 271 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $261K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 865 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.