Breaking
Iran military action odds spike 87 points to 93.5% on Polymarket
Whale trading backed the rapid jump in probability for Iran’s military action against a Gulf State on July 12.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Odds on Strait of Hormuz Transits July 31 Jump 23.2pp to 44.1%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp price rise in the market for average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 24pp to 38.5% with $191K whale inflow
Whales and market price moved together as the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31 surged sharply.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action on July 12? YES jumps 83.5 pp to 90.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour repricing from 7.0% to 90.5%, signaling strong market conviction.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price surges 15.5 points to 92.5% on United Left primary cancellation market
Whales aligned with the price rally, adding a net $4K into YES as Polymarket sharply reprices the 2026 French presidential primary question.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 80pp to 86.5% on Polymarket
Whale bets reinforced a sharp shift in expectations for Iran's military move, with contract prices jumping from 6.5% to 86.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds Rise 17 pp to 41% on US Warships Transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026
Whale activity moved in tandem with a sharp price increase, lifting market confidence in US naval passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 12
Breaking
Strait of Hormuz transit odds jump 17.6pp to 43.1% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with the price surge as the market reassessed the likelihood of low transit traffic on July 31.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 23pp to 38.5% with $193K whale buying
Whales reinforced a sharp 24-hour rise in Polymarket’s contract pricing US blockade of Iran by July 31.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 75.5 pp to 82% as whales back the move
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?” market jumps sharply with whale flows confirming the shift.
Jul 12