Breaking
Iran military action on July 12? YES price jumps 82.5 points to 90.5%
Whale activity matched the sharp shift in odds, signaling strong conviction behind the rapid repricing.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? YES odds jump 16 pp to 40.5%
Whale activity and market prices moved in tandem as the probability of US sanction relief on Iranian oil surged on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? YES price jumps 22.5 pp to 47.0%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp odds shift signaling growing market confidence in sanction relief by end of July.
Jul 12
Breaking
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? YES jumps 23.3 pp to 88.6%
Whale buying aligned with a sharp rise in YES price, pushing odds from 65.3% to 88.6% in 24 hours
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds for Strait of Hormuz Transit Drop Range Jump 17.7pp to 43.5%
Whale betting aligned with price surge as Polymarket market sees $13K volume in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
US blockade on Iran odds jump 20pp to 47% as whales back the move
Whales aligned with a sharp 20 percentage point rise in the chance of a US blockade on Iran by August 31, driving a surge in Polymarket activity.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 jump 35pp to 61.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with sharp price rise as market recalibrated odds on Russian advance
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Surge 88 Points to 94.5% on Polymarket
Whale trading volume aligned with sharp repricing, pushing probability from 6.5% to near certainty in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension YES price jumps 80pp to 99.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price action aligned as market sharply repriced likelihood of Claude Fable 5 paid-plan extension by July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action probability jumps 83.5 points to 90% on July 12 market
Polymarket’s contract on Iran taking military action against a Gulf State sees aligned whale flow and a surge in odds to 90%.
Jul 12