Breaking
Iran Hormuz attack odds plunge 16.1pp to 1.5% despite whale buying
Whale activity diverged from sharply falling prices in the market for Iran not attacking ships by Sunday, signaling conflicting signals.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Russia Capture of Kostyantynivka Contract Jumps 24.5 Points to 56% on Polymarket
Whales added $27K to YES positions as market odds on Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by July 31 rose sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 79pp to 85.5% on July 12
Whale activity and price movement aligned as probability surged from 6.5% to 85.5% within 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade market jumps 22pp as whales add $27K to YES
Polymarket’s US blockade question shifts sharply higher with whale activity reinforcing the move amid a volume spike.
Jul 12
Breaking
Anthropic IPO odds plunge 24.5 points as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket’s “Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price despite $4K whale buying, highlighting tension between price moves and whale activity.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by July 31? YES price jumps 28pp to 60.5%
Whales supported the surge with $26K net buys amid $47K total 24h volume, pushing odds sharply higher.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 75pp to 82.5% as Whale Bets Align
Polymarket’s Gulf conflict market saw a swift 75pp rise in YES odds with whale activity confirming the move.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Hormuz attack contract YES price plunges 22pp to 1.5% despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from a sharp market sell-off as Polymarket traders slashed odds on Iran abstaining from attacks by Sunday.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka odds jump 31pp to 63.5% on Polymarket
Whales added $26K into YES as the contract nearly doubled in price within 24 hours, signaling a sharp shift in market sentiment.
Jul 12
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 15pp to 30.5% despite $47K whale bets
Whale trading flow diverged from price action as market odds fell sharply on Polymarket in 24 hours.
Jul 12