The Polymarket contract “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” saw its YES price collapse by 42.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours, falling from an estimated 50.2% to 7.4%. This dramatic repricing signals a significant shift in market sentiment against the event occurring as initially expected.
Counterintuitively, whale activity diverged from the price movement. Despite the sharp drop in YES odds, whales collectively bought $11K worth of YES contracts and sold $5K, resulting in a net $7K inflow into YES positions. This flow contrasts with the overall market direction, where total 24-hour volume was $9K, indicating that whales accounted for a substantial portion of the buying interest even as prices fell.
The market has attracted 209 unique traders over its lifetime with total volume reaching $61K, and 49 unique whales traded in the past day. The divergence flagged by whale flow moving against the tape suggests conflicting views between larger traders and the broader market consensus.
The pronounced move and opposing whale flow highlight the unsettled nature of expectations around Iran’s actions on July 13.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835636 |
| 24h price change | +42.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 7.4% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 50.2% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $7K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $11K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 49 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 209 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.