The Polymarket market “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?” saw its YES price climb sharply by 36.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 50.5% to 87.0%. This substantial repricing reflects a sudden surge in market conviction around the event.
Whale trading activity aligned closely with this price move. In the same period, whales contributed a net $5K buying flow into YES contracts, with $9K in buy volume and $4K in sell volume across 88 unique whale traders. Overall market volume for the 24-hour window totaled $10K, with lifetime volume at $17K and 201 unique traders participating.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 87.0% significantly exceeds the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 33.5%, highlighting a divergence between the Polymarket feed and the broader on-chain data snapshot. Despite this, the whale flow confirms the sharp upward price movement seen on Polymarket, reinforcing the recent surge in confidence among large traders.
| Market | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2851419 |
| 24h price change | +36.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 87.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 50.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 33.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $9K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 88 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 201 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.