The market for “Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?” saw a significant decline in its YES price over the past 24 hours, dropping 19.5 percentage points from 45.0% to 25.5%, according to Polymarket Breaking data as of July 16, 2026.
This sharp repricing coincided with a divergence between price movement and large trader activity. Whale flow did not follow the downward trend; instead, it diverged from the price action, indicating that sizable participants were net buyers of YES contracts while the market overall pushed prices lower. This mismatch suggests a split in sentiment between retail and whale traders.
Trading volume for the past day reached $19K on Polymarket, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $174K. The volume level reflects moderate engagement but does not clarify which side dominates sentiment.
The divergence between whale flow and price movement is notable because it signals uncertainty or disagreement about Iran’s intentions regarding the MOU negotiations. While the broader market discounted the likelihood of withdrawal by August 15, whales appeared to be accumulating YES positions, possibly anticipating a shift in outcome or positioning against the retail trend.
This combination of a steep price drop alongside whale buying underscores the complexity of this geopolitical event’s market expectations and suggests that the contract remains contested among informed traders.
| Market | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820206 |
| 24h price change | +19.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 25.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 45.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $19K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.