Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds plunge 20pp despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged sharply from a 20.0 percentage point drop in YES price on Polymarket.
Jul 11
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalcy odds drop 15pp to 34.5% despite whale selling
Polymarket’s ‘Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?’ market saw a sharp 15.0pp decline in YES price while whale flow diverged by selling into the dip.
Jul 11
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds drop 21pp despite whale buying
YES contract for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026 fell from 44.0% to 23.0% while whale flow diverged, signaling mixed market signals.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?” YES price falls 17.5 pp despite whale selling
Polymarket’s odds for Moscow air traffic suspension dropped from 92.0% to 74.5% as whale activity diverged from price moves, signaling market skepticism.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?” YES price drops 15pp to 77.5% amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s contract on Moscow air traffic suspension saw a sharp 15pp decline in YES price despite opposing whale trading activity.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds drop 18.5 pp despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?” contract fell from 22.0% to 3.5% even as whales increased YES stakes, signaling a disconnect between price and large bets.
Jul 10
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds jump 15.5 points with $61K whale buying
Whales pushed $61K into YES as market repriced from 40.5% to 56.0% probability in 24 hours
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 24.1 pp to 3.9% amid divergent whale flow
Polymarket’s 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?' market dropped sharply despite whale activity moving against the price shift.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 17.5 pp to 4.0% despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?” contract saw a sharp drop in yes price, even as whales increased exposure to the outcome.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 38pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price despite whale activity moving against the decline.
Jul 10