Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 39.6 points despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price while whale flow moved opposite the tape.
Jul 10
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Odds for Moscow Air Traffic Suspension by August 31 Drop 16.5pp Amid Whale Divergence
Polymarket's Moscow air traffic suspension contract fell from 90.5% to 74.0% despite whale activity opposing the price move.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran military action on July 10? YES price drops 27pp despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from a sharp 27.0pp decline in Iran Gulf military action odds on Polymarket.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 27.5 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?” contract fell sharply despite whale activity opposing the move.
Jul 10
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds jump 19pp to 61% with $55K whale inflow
Whale activity and price movement aligned as Polymarket sharply repriced the chance of talks by July 31, 2026.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 29 pp despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price while whale flow moved opposite.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 41.1pp despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from price as Polymarket slashed the chance of Iranian military action on July 9 to 13.9%.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 57.2 pp amid whale flow divergence
YES contract for Iran military action on July 9 dropped from 71.5% to 14.2% despite whale activity opposing the price move.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 65pp despite whale bets on YES
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” market saw YES price collapse from 82.0% to 17.0% even as whales increased YES exposure.
Jul 10
Breaking
“Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” YES price plunges 72pp to 12.7%
The market sharply cut odds despite whale buying diverging from the price drop, signaling trader skepticism amid $22K volume.
Jul 10