The probability that the US and Iran will hold a diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026, rose sharply by 15.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 40.5% to 56.0%. This significant increase in odds was accompanied by strong whale activity, with 155 unique large traders collectively buying $101K worth of YES contracts and selling $41K, resulting in a net whale flow of $61K into the YES side.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume for this market was $90K, indicating that whales accounted for a majority of recent trading activity. The lifetime volume in this contract stands at $492K, with 887 unique traders having participated since inception. The alignment of whale flows with the price movement suggests large traders are confident in the increased likelihood of a diplomatic meeting by the deadline.
This coordinated surge in both price and whale buying pressure signals a meaningful shift in market sentiment.
| Market | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2646850 |
| 24h price change | +15.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 56.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 40.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 57.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $61K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $101K / $41K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 155 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $90K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 887 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.