Breaking
“Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?” YES price jumps 29.0 pp to 70.0%
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour rise in odds with $18K net inflow, aligning with the price move.
Jul 12
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds surge 88pp to 92.5% with whale buying on July 12
Whales drove a $4K net inflow into YES as Polymarket odds for Iran targeting shipping on July 12 jumped sharply.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 19.5 points to 41% with $95K whale buys
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour price rise on Polymarket’s Iran blockade question.
Jul 11
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 22 pp to 34.5% amid whale buying divergence
Whales pumped $43K into YES contracts even as Polymarket prices pulled sharply lower, signaling conflicting signals in the market.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Hormuz attack contract YES price plunges 16.7pp despite whale buying
Polymarket’s market on Iran not attacking ships in Hormuz by Sunday dropped from 18.0% to 1.4% even as whales increased YES positions.
Jul 11
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 18pp to 39.5% with $94K whale support
Whales boosted the 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?' market alongside a sharp price rise, signaling renewed conviction.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran non-attack odds on Hormuz ships plunge 24.4 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s ‘Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?’ YES contract dropped from 26.0% to 1.6% despite whale activity moving against the price trend.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds drop 16.1pp despite whale buying
Polymarket prices for Iran military action on July 11 fell sharply while whale flow moved opposite, signaling trader skepticism.
Jul 11
Breaking
Odds for 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, drop 20pp in 24h
Polymarket’s price for 'Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz' fell sharply despite whale buying diverging from the price move.
Jul 11
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 17pp as whale flow diverges from price
Whales added $50K to YES contracts even as Polymarket price for a July 2026 meeting fell sharply from 27.5% to 10.5%.
Jul 11