Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 64.5 points to 73% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price movement aligned as market sharply repriced the likelihood of military action on July 12.
Jul 12
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Surge 70pp to 78.5% on Polymarket Amid Whale Support
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?” market jumps from 8.5% to 78.5% as whale flow aligns with the sharp price move.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 62pp to 70.5% on July 12
Whale activity aligned with sharp price jump, pushing Polymarket’s market odds from 8.5% to 70.5%.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 66 points to 80.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price shifts moved in tandem as bets surged on imminent Iranian military action against a Gulf State.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket odds for Iran targeting shipping on July 11 jump 22.4 pp to 25.9%
Whale trading aligned with rapid price increase, signaling stronger conviction in the event’s likelihood
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 62.5 points to 77% on July 12 Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with sharp repricing as the market rapidly adjusted to heightened conflict risk.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 36.5 pp amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s odds for 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, fell sharply despite whales not supporting the move.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 67.5 pp to 82% amid aligned whale buying
Polymarket’s ‘Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?’ contract saw a sharp repricing supported by whale flow, pushing odds from 14.5% to 82%.
Jul 12
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 16pp despite $41K whale buy flow
Whale buying diverged sharply from falling market prices, signaling conflicting signals on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? YES price jumps 54.5 pp to 69.5%
Whale trading activity tracked the rapid rise in odds, confirming a sharp market repricing over 24 hours.
Jul 12