Breaking
Iran Hormuz attack odds plunge 16.1pp to 1.5% despite whale buying
Whale activity diverged from sharply falling prices in the market for Iran not attacking ships by Sunday, signaling conflicting signals.
Jul 12
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 79pp to 85.5% on July 12
Whale activity and price movement aligned as probability surged from 6.5% to 85.5% within 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade market jumps 22pp as whales add $27K to YES
Polymarket’s US blockade question shifts sharply higher with whale activity reinforcing the move amid a volume spike.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by July 31? YES price jumps 28pp to 60.5%
Whales supported the surge with $26K net buys amid $47K total 24h volume, pushing odds sharply higher.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka odds jump 31pp to 63.5% on Polymarket
Whales added $26K into YES as the contract nearly doubled in price within 24 hours, signaling a sharp shift in market sentiment.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price jumps 85.0 pp to 87.2% on Iran shipping attack market
Whales contributed $11K net buying as Polymarket sharply repriced odds for July 12 event
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 25.2 pp despite whale buying
Whale bets on Iran military action rose while market prices sharply dropped from 53.5% to 28.3% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 67.5pp to 75% on July 12
Whale activity and market prices rose together sharply, reflecting a major shift in expectations.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 72pp to 79.5% on July 12 Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with price jump as market rapidly reprices likelihood of conflict
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds climb 17.5 points as whales back YES with $29K net flow
Polymarket’s 24-hour price surge to 58.5% on US blockade question matched by strong whale buying signals increased conviction.
Jul 12