The probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 jumped 34.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 18.5% to 53.0%. This sharp rally in the YES contract was accompanied by strong whale activity, with $171K net flow into YES positions. Whales bought $325K and sold $154K, involving 318 unique large traders over the same period.
The overall 24-hour volume on this market was $301K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $927K from 955 unique traders. The whale flows aligned closely with the price move, confirming the market’s bullish repricing rather than diverging on the tape. Notably, the Polymarket breaking YES price of 53.0% contrasts with the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 22.5%, highlighting a rapid shift in market expectations captured by the breaking feed.
This synchronized surge in both price and whale buying suggests a significant reassessment of the likelihood of a US blockade on Iran within the next few weeks. The combination of strong whale conviction and a doubling of the market-implied probability signals a meaningful change in the consensus view on this geopolitical event.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +34.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 53.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 18.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $171K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $325K / $154K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 318 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $301K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 955 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.