Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Polymarket’s ‘US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?’ market saw a sharp drop in YES price, while whale flow moved opposite the price trend.
Polymarket’s “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?” contract fell from 61.5% to 32.5% even as whales added to YES positions, signaling conflicting market signals.
Whale flow diverged from price as Polymarket’s “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?” market sharply repriced lower on July 19.
Polymarket’s “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?” market saw a sharp 19.0 percentage point decline in YES price even as whale flow diverged by supporting YES.
Polymarket's Israel-Iran ceasefire market saw a sharp 26 percentage point decline in YES odds while whales increased net exposure to YES contracts.
Whale flows diverged from price as the market cut YES odds nearly in half over 24 hours.
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 46 percentage point rise in the likelihood that Syrskyi leaves his post by end-2026.
Whale activity matched the sharp rise in market odds, pushing the YES price from 8.1% to 38.5% on Polymarket.
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 19.1 percentage point jump in the market on Syrskyi’s potential removal by July 31, 2026.
Whale buying of $17K into YES contrasts with a sharp 17.5 pp decline in the contract’s probability over 24 hours.
