The probability that the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold through July 31 fell sharply by 19.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, from an estimated 61.5% to 42.5%, according to Polymarket’s latest breaking data. This sizeable drop in the YES contract price signals a significant shift in market sentiment on the conflict’s trajectory.
Interestingly, this price move occurred alongside whale buying that diverged from the downward price trend. Despite the YES price retreating, large traders continued to net invest in the YES outcome, signaling a disconnect between the tape and whale flow.
Trading volume on the market reached $37K in the last 24 hours, emphasizing that this was an active period of reassessment by participants. The conflicting signals between price and whale activity highlight ongoing uncertainty or differing interpretations of geopolitical developments affecting the ceasefire’s durability.
This combination of a steep price drop with opposing whale flow underscores a complex market dynamic. It reflects that while the consensus view is less optimistic about the ceasefire lasting through July, influential traders are maintaining or increasing their exposure to that outcome. The market remains highly contested with no clear directional conviction among all participants.
| Market | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2952486 |
| 24h price change | +19.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 42.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 61.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $37K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.