The probability that the Israel x Iran ceasefire will continue through July 31 fell sharply by 26.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, dropping from an estimated 64.5% to 38.5%. This sizable repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment against the continuation of the ceasefire.
Interestingly, the flow of large investors diverged from this price move. Despite the odds moving lower, whales increased their net exposure to YES contracts, indicating a disconnect between the price action and the direction of large bets. This divergence suggests that while the broader market sentiment shifted against the ceasefire’s continuation, some large participants maintained or increased their conviction in the YES outcome.
The Polymarket 24-hour volume for this market was $34K, highlighting active trading amid the changing probabilities. The mismatch between whale flow and price direction underscores a complex market dynamic, where price declines are not always confirmed by the largest traders’ behavior.
This pattern signals a contested market view on the Israel-Iran ceasefire, with significant uncertainty reflected both in the sharp drop in odds and the counter-positioning of whales. The combination of declining YES prices and rising whale interest points to ongoing debate among informed traders about the conflict’s trajectory through the end of July.
| Market | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2952486 |
| 24h price change | +26.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 38.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 64.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $34K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.