Breaking
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Meeting Odds Drop 15pp Despite $8K Whale Support
Whales increased YES exposure by $8K while Polymarket's price for a diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026, fell from 49.0% to 34.0%.
Jul 18
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
‘Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?’ YES price drops 17.5 pp despite $9K whale buys
Whale buying flows diverged from a sharp 17.5 percentage point decline in YES contract price over 24 hours, signaling mixed market signals.
Jul 18
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18? YES jumps 37.4pp to 99.4%
Polymarket odds for Iranian military action surged sharply with whale activity confirming the move amid $19K volume.
Jul 18
Breaking
Israel x Iran ceasefire odds jump 19.5pp to 83.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp price rise as the market repriced ceasefire continuation through July 22.
Jul 18
Breaking
“Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?” YES price drops 23 pp despite whale buying
Whales pumped $9K into YES contracts even as the market price fell from 50.0% to 27.0%, signaling a sharp divergence between big bets and price action.
Jul 18
Breaking
Houthis shipping target odds plunge 34.5 points as whale flow pushes opposite way
YES price for Houthis targeting shipping drops from 61.5% to 27.0% despite $9K whale bets into YES
Jul 18
Breaking
Houthis shipping attack odds plunge 38.6pp as whale flow diverges on Polymarket
Polymarket’s “Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?” contract saw a sharp price drop despite no whale buying support for YES.
Jul 18
Breaking
Trump-Netanyahu meeting odds plunge 15.1pp to 3.4% amid divergent whale activity
Polymarket's price on a Trump-Netanyahu meeting by July 24, 2026, fell sharply despite whale flow moving against the decline.
Jul 18
Breaking
“Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by July 31?” YES price drops 15.4pp amid whale flow divergence
Whales bought $809 of YES contracts while Polymarket’s price fell from 25.0% to 9.6%, signaling conflicting signals in this geopolitical market.
Jul 18
Breaking
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by July 31? YES price drops 17.9pp despite whale buying
Whale activity diverges from sharp 17.9pp decline in YES contract price on Polymarket.
Jul 18