Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? YES odds jump 38.5 pp to 78%
Whale trading backed a sharp 24-hour surge in the probability of Iranian military action in the Gulf, pushing prices from 39.5% to 78%.
Jul 13
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Odds Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 drop 15.5 pp to 40% on Polymarket
Whale activity diverges from price move as market odds fall sharply in 24 hours on Kostyantynivka capture question
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 58pp to 77% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with a sharp price rise, pushing odds for a diplomatic meeting up from 19% to 77% in 24 hours
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 62pp to 81% on Polymarket
Whale activity matched the sharp 62 percentage point rise in odds for a meeting by July 14, 2026, signaling strong conviction in the shift.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” YES price falls 17.5 pp amid whale buying divergence
Whale flow of $108K into YES contrasts with a sharp 17.5 percentage point drop in contract price to 30.5%, signaling conflicting signals on Polymarket.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 71pp to 90% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price movement aligned sharply as market reprices the likelihood of a meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
US Iran oil sanction relief odds jump 16pp to 39% as whale flow backs move
Polymarket’s 'US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?' contract surged from 23% to 39% in 24 hours with aligned whale activity.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?” YES price falls 18pp as whale flow diverges
Whales bought $26K in YES contracts while Polymarket’s price dropped from 58.0% to 40.0%, signaling conflicting signals.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds soar 74pp to 93% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price movement align as market sharply reprices near certainty for diplomatic talks by July 14, 2026
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Gulf State Military Action Odds Surge 38.8pp to 54.9% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price moves aligned as the market sharply repriced likelihood of Iran military action on July 9.
Jul 13