The Polymarket contract “Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?” experienced a notable shift in the last 24 hours with its YES price dropping 21.5 percentage points, from an estimated 62.0% to 40.5%. This decline in odds contrasts with whale activity, which showed a net inflow of $21K into YES positions during the same period.
Whales accounted for $40K in buy volume against $19K in sell volume, involving 81 unique whale traders. Despite the price retreat, the substantial whale buying suggests significant interest or conviction in the YES outcome among large traders.
This divergence between price movement and whale flow is further highlighted by the flag indicating flow diverges from price. While the market price fell sharply, large buyers increased their exposure, indicating a disconnect between retail price action and whale behavior.
Overall 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket for this market was $34K, with a lifetime volume of $238K and 633 unique traders recorded by Polydata. Notably, the Polymarket YES price of 40.5% differs from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 29.0%, suggesting some discrepancy between pricing sources.
The combined picture of falling market odds alongside rising whale purchases points to a complex dynamic where large traders are wagering differently than the broader market.
| Market | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2608935 |
| 24h price change | +21.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 40.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 62.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 29.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $21K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $40K / $19K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 81 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $34K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 633 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.