The market for “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” on Polymarket saw its YES contract price jump 68.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 31.0% to 99.8%. This dramatic repricing coincided with significant whale activity, as 310 unique whales contributed a net inflow of $323K into YES contracts, with $572K in buys against $249K in sells. The 24-hour trading volume reached $447K, part of a lifetime market volume of $1.65M involving 1,310 unique traders.
Whale buying activity moved in tandem with the price surge, indicating strong alignment between large investors and the market’s directional shift. Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 99.8% diverges sharply from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 25.5%, suggesting a split between Polymarket’s real-time odds feed and the on-chain data snapshot. This gap highlights the rapid repricing dynamics and possibly differing data update cadences between sources.
The combined picture of near-certain market pricing and robust whale buying underscores a heightened expectation of a US blockade announcement on Iran before the end of July. This level of conviction from major traders, paired with the sharp price move, signals a strong consensus forming around this outcome in the prediction market.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +68.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 99.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 31.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $323K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $572K / $249K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 310 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $447K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,310 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.