Breaking
Odds McConnell Will Step Down Before Term End Drop 20pp Amid Whale Selling
Whales sold $16K against a 20pp decline in McConnell stepping down odds, signaling skeptical big-money flow.
Jul 12
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
‘Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding?’ YES jumps 30.5 pp to 89%
Whale activity aligned with the sharp price rise, contributing $1K net flow into YES in a $5K volume market.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price falls 19 pp to 36% on Strait of Hormuz transit market as whale flow diverges
Polymarket's '40 ships transit Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026' contract dropped sharply despite whale activity opposing the move.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket sees 24.5pp drop in McConnell Senate resignation odds amid whale-price divergence
Despite whales netting $14K into YES, Polymarket’s price for McConnell stepping down fell sharply from 49.5% to 25.0% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
US blockade on Iran odds jump 17.5 points on Polymarket with $25K whale inflow
Polymarket's contract on a US blockade of Iran by year-end rises from 44.0% to 61.5% amid aligned whale buying.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?” YES price jumps 21.5 pp to 77.0%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 21.5 pp rise in the probability of Russian capture within 24 hours, pushing the market price to 77.0%.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?” YES price jumps 25.5 pp to 81.0%
Odds on Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by August 31 rose sharply alongside aligned whale activity, signaling increased market conviction.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action market jumps 71pp to 80.5% as whales back the surge
Polymarket’s contract on Iran launching military action against a Gulf State on July 12 saw its YES price rise sharply alongside whale buying, signaling increased market conviction.
Jul 12
Breaking
US blockade on Iran odds jump 20pp to 62.5% as whales back the rally
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 20 percentage point rise in Polymarket’s YES price for a US blockade on Iran by year-end.
Jul 12
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 YES price jumps 16pp to 95.5% with whale buying
Whale activity and a sharp price rise pushed Polymarket odds for the July 31 launch to near certainty, despite a lower on-chain mid-price.
Jul 12