Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? YES price jumps 80 pp to 89.5%
Whale trading aligned with a sharp rise in odds, pushing the market from 9.5% to 89.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Iran Gulf State military action odds surge 84pp to 93.5% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with sharp price jump, pushing odds from 9.5% to 93.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” YES price jumps 87.8 pp to 91.2% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp repricing with $12K net buys amid $23K total 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in the outcome.
Jul 12
Whales
Whales add $1.97M to Switzerland World Cup 2026 YES at 0.05% market price
Large traders increased exposure to Switzerland’s 2026 World Cup win despite near-zero market odds, signaling a rare divergence.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia Capture of Kostyantynivka Odds Jump 25.5 Points to 52% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp price rise with $28K net buys, pushing the market over the 50% threshold.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia Capture of Kostyantynivka Jumps 28.5pp to 55% on Polymarket
Whales supported a sharp shift in odds, doubling the YES price with $28K net inflow amid $51K 24-hour volume.
Jul 12
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 Extension YES Price Surges 71.5pp to 100%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp market repricing on Polymarket, confirming near-certainty of an extension by July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action market jumps 77.5 points to 87% as whale flow backs surge
Polymarket’s contract on Iran launching military action against a Gulf State on July 12 saw a sharp repricing, with large traders confirming the move.
Jul 12
Whales
Whale Bets $440K Against 0.05% Odds on Switzerland to Win 2026 World Cup
A single wallet placed $873K across two large bets backing Switzerland in a low-probability World Cup winner market, joining broader whale buying.
Jul 12
Whales
0x2cff…59db places $338K bet on UFC 329 outcome priced at 70.5%
This wallet’s $635K total bets today align with strong whale buying amid $18.33M market volume on UFC 329.
Jul 12