Whales
Whales Buy $256K on France to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 39.0% Market Odds
Whale investors have pushed $256K into the YES side, diverging from the market price that values France’s win at 39.0%.
Jul 13
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on US Iran blockade falls 17pp despite $131K whale buying
Whale activity diverged from the sharp drop in odds on US blockade announcement by July 31, signaling mixed sentiment.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Shipping Target Market YES Price Surges 34pp to 45.6% with Whale Support
Whales added $5K net into YES as Polymarket’s odds for Iran targeting shipping on July 13 rose sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
‘No next UK Culture Secretary in 2026?’ YES price jumps 15.0 pp to 26.5% on whale support
Whales contributed a net $3K buying YES contracts as the market’s probability more than doubled in 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
YES price drops 18.9pp to 18.6% on Farage 70–80% vote share market amid whale divergence
Whales bought $3K into YES while Polymarket price fell sharply, signaling conflicting signals on Nigel Farage’s by-election performance.
Jul 13
Breaking
Odds for 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026 jump 19.5pp to 36.5%
Whale trading activity tracked the sharp rise in market odds, signaling growing confidence in a high traffic day through the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 13
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds drop 20.5 pp despite $133K whale buying
Whale purchases of $133K into YES diverge sharply from the 20.5 pp price decline to 30.0% on Polymarket.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” YES price drops 23pp despite $144K whale buying
Whale buying of $144K in YES contracts contrasts sharply with a 23.0 percentage point decline in the market’s odds over 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
Odds for US Iran blockade by July 31 fall 22pp despite $154K whale buy-in
Whale flow diverged sharply from price, signaling conflicting signals on Polymarket’s Iran blockade market.
Jul 13
Whales
Whale Bets $299K Against Consensus on Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalizing by July 15
A $299K bet from experienced trader @Dafu0715 backs a longshot outcome priced at 12.5%, joining a $1.06M whale buying wave on the market.
Jul 13