The market on whether the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 saw its YES contract price fall 17.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours, dropping from 47.5% to 30.5%. This sharp decline in implied probability contrasts with whale trading activity, which moved against the price trend.
Whales contributed a net inflow of $131K into YES contracts during the same period, supported by $234K in whale buy volume versus $103K in sell volume, across 255 unique whale traders. This divergence between price movement and whale flow is notable, as typically large traders’ activity aligns with price shifts.
Overall 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market totaled $194K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $1.11M and involving 1,069 unique traders. The mixed signals—falling prices alongside whale accumulation—suggest uncertainty or strategic positioning among large traders despite the market repricing lower odds for a blockade announcement.
This split between whale buying and price decline indicates that while the broader market is lowering the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31, some large participants are betting on a contrary outcome, reflecting a complex market dynamic rather than a uniform consensus.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +17.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 30.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 47.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $131K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $234K / $103K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 255 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $194K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,069 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.