The probability that Iran will successfully target shipping on July 13 surged by 34.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, jumping from an estimated 11.5% to 45.6% on Polymarket. This dramatic repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment toward the event occurring.
Whale activity aligned with the price move, with 45 unique whales contributing $11K in buy volume and $6K in sell volume, resulting in a net $5K inflow into YES contracts. The 24-hour Polymarket volume for this market was $9K, indicating that whales accounted for a substantial portion of recent trading. Lifetime volume on the market stands at $18K, with 118 unique traders having participated overall.
The concurrence of whale buying and a strong price increase suggests coordinated conviction among larger traders in the likelihood of Iran targeting shipping on the specified date. This combined price and flow action points to a notable recalibration of risk perception in this market, with both retail and whale participants moving in tandem to price in a higher chance of the event occurring.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835636 |
| 24h price change | +34.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 45.6% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 11.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $11K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 45 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 118 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.