Breaking
Bitcoin $62,500 July dip odds jump 20.5pp to 94.5% on Polymarket
Whales bought $9K into YES contracts as market price and whale flow moved in sync, pushing odds sharply higher.
Jul 13
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
“Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?” YES price drops 18pp despite whale outflows
Whale trading diverged from the 18.0pp fall in YES price, signaling mixed signals on Bitcoin's July target.
Jul 13
Breaking
Odds Mitch McConnell will step down fall 19pp as whale flow bucks price drop
Whales bought $28K in YES contracts even as market probability dropped from 50.0% to 31.0% in 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
Mitch McConnell Senate vote odds double to 30% on Polymarket with whale support
A 15.5 percentage-point jump in YES price aligns with whale buying, signaling stronger market conviction.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?” odds fall 16.4 pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket's YES contract for Iran targeting shipping drops from 23.3% to 7.0% despite no whale buying, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? YES price climbs 37.5pp to 82%
Whale activity and price movement aligned as market sharply reprices likelihood of conflict in Gulf.
Jul 13
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka odds jump 21pp to 45.5% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp 21-point increase in the YES price with $31K net inflow, driving the market's fastest 24-hour reprice.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action on July 13? YES price jumps 25pp to 76.5%
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 25 percentage point increase in the market’s probability over 24 hours.
Jul 13
Whales
Whales Push $305K into England Win at 21.6% Despite Market Skepticism
Large traders’ $305K net buy contrasts with the market’s 21.6% implied probability for England’s 2026 World Cup victory.
Jul 13
Breaking
‘Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?’ odds drop 15.5 pp despite $129K whale inflow
Polymarket’s YES price for a US blockade on Iran fell sharply from 45.5% to 30.0% in 24 hours, while whales bought $129K worth of contracts, signaling a divergence between price action and whale behavior.
Jul 13