Whales
Whales Bet $761K on Spain to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 16.5% Market Price
Large traders have pushed $3.04M into Spain bets over 24 hours, diverging sharply from the market-implied 16.5% probability.
Jul 10
#%swhale flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 463 stories.
Breaking
OpenAI model score market YES price plunges 70.9 pp amid whale flow-price split
YES contract on OpenAI model debut score fell from 81.5% to 10.6% while whales bought $3K into YES, diverging from price action.
Jul 10
Breaking
Anthropic Math AI Odds Drop 34.5pp as Whale Flow Diverges from Price Move
YES contract for Anthropic’s top Math AI model claim plunged from 73.5% to 39.0%, while whales increased YES bets by $5K.
Jul 10
Breaking
Anthropic Math AI odds drop 28pp as whale flow diverges from price move
Despite a 28.0 pp plunge in YES price, whales pushed $5K into the contract, signaling conflicting signals in the market.
Jul 10
Breaking
25pp Surge in Odds the 2026 United Left Primary Will Be Canceled as Whales Back the Move
Polymarket’s YES price jumps from 49.5% to 74.5% on $8K whale inflows, signaling sharp repricing on French election primary cancellation.
Jul 10
Breaking
Mbappé’s World Cup Goal Contributions Contract Jumps 46pp to 78.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and market prices aligned as confidence surged sharply in Mbappé leading in goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Jul 10
Breaking
Odds for BBL Esports as Last VCT EMEA Team at EWC 2026 Surge 77.4pp to 100%
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour price jump, pushing the market from 22.6% to certainty on Polymarket.
Jul 10
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds jump 25 points with $48K whale buy-in
Whale activity and price gains aligned as market odds surged from 41.5% to 66.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 10
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds jump 22.5 points as whales back YES with $35K net flow
Polymarket’s YES price for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026, climbed sharply alongside whale buying, signaling growing market conviction.
Jul 10
Breaking
BBL Esports YES price jumps 39.8 points to 100% on Polymarket
Whale buying aligned with a sharp price surge, pushing odds from 60.2% to certainty in 24 hours.
Jul 10