The market on whether Kylian Mbappé will record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup surged 46.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 32.5% to 78.5% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Whale activity confirmed the price move, with a net inflow of $1K into YES contracts. Total whale buy volume reached $2K against $1K in sells, involving 20 unique whales. The alignment of whale flow and price action suggests that large traders supported the sudden jump in Mbappé’s odds. Overall 24-hour volume on the market was $5K, within a lifetime market volume of $23K and involving 221 unique traders.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 78.5% currently exceeds the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 61.0%, indicating a divergence between the live market price and on-chain liquidity midpoint. This gap highlights rapid market repricing ahead of on-chain consensus.
The combined price surge and whale support point to growing confidence among traders and significant backing from large participants that Mbappé will top goal contributions in the upcoming World Cup. This move signals a strong market consensus shift rather than isolated speculation.
| Market | Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2117909 |
| 24h price change | +46.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 78.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 32.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 61.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $1K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $2K / $1K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 20 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 221 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.