The probability that the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election will be canceled surged by 25.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours, with the YES contract price climbing from 49.5% to 74.5% on Polymarket.
This sharp upward repricing was accompanied by whale activity aligned with the price move, as 44 unique whales contributed a net $8K inflow into YES positions. Whale buy volume totaled $14K, outpacing $6K in sell volume during the same period.
Trading volume on the market over the past day reached $13K, a notable portion of the lifetime market volume of $62K, reflecting elevated investor interest in this question. Overall, 264 unique traders have participated in this market since inception.
Interestingly, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 74.5% diverges significantly from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 52.5%, indicating a rapid shift in sentiment not yet fully reflected in broader on-chain data.
The combined price and whale flow data suggest a strong consensus among larger traders that the primary cancellation is increasingly likely, driving a significant revaluation of the contract’s odds in a short time frame.
| Market | Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2133718 |
| 24h price change | +25.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 74.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 49.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 52.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $8K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $14K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 44 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 264 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.