Breaking
Fed Rate Hold Odds Surge 18pp to 93.5% on $2.69M Whale Buy Flow
Whales and retail traders pushed the probability of no Fed rate change after July 2026 sharply higher, diverging from on-chain mid-prices.
Jul 14
#%swhale flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 463 stories.
Breaking
“Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?” YES price plunges 65.8 pp to 30.0% on Polymarket
Whale flow diverged sharply from price action as Polymarket’s YES contract dropped from 95.8% to 30.0%, signaling a market rift.
Jul 14
Breaking
Odds for 30 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, plunge 63.5pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s YES price dropped from 95.8% to 32.2% despite $22K whale buys, signaling conflicting signals between price action and whale trading.
Jul 14
Breaking
Houthis shipping attack odds plunge 34.1pp to 15.5% despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price while whale flow diverged, signaling conflicting signals.
Jul 14
Breaking
Inflation Market Soars 98.4pp to 100% as Whales Back Move with $19K Net Buys
The “Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?” market jumped from 1.6% to 100%, with whale buying aligning with the price surge.
Jul 14
Breaking
Houthis Shipping Target Odds Jump 18pp to 53.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity confirmed the sharp rise in probability for Houthis targeting shipping by August 31, 2026.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran Hormuz fees market jumps 15pp as whales back YES with $20K net flow
Polymarket’s odds for Iran charging Hormuz fees by August 31 rise sharply, driven by aligned whale buying and increased volume.
Jul 14
Breaking
Fed July 2026 rate pause odds drop 15pp despite $1.10M whale buy net
Whales bought $1.10M in YES contracts while Polymarket prices for no Fed rate change after July 2026 meeting fell sharply by 15 percentage points.
Jul 14
Breaking
John Pardon’s 2026 Fields Medal odds jump 16.4 pp to 97.9% with whale buying
Whales aligned with price, driving $4K net flow into YES as market volume hits $10K in 24 hours
Jul 14
Breaking
“Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES price jumps 52.2 pp to 98.8%
Whale activity and market prices moved in tandem as confidence surged in the Credible public sale surpassing $25M.
Jul 14