The Polymarket YES price for the question “Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” collapsed by 65.8 percentage points in the past 24 hours, falling from an estimated 95.8% to 30.0% as of July 14.
This dramatic repricing reflects a sharp shift in market sentiment or information, but notably, whale activity diverged from this price move. Despite the plunge in the YES price, whales collectively bought $55K and sold $26K, resulting in a net $29K flow into YES contracts. This net buying by 68 unique whales contrasts with the steep decline in price, highlighting a disconnect between large trader flow and the overall market tape.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume on this market reached $36K, with a lifetime market volume of $88K and 141 unique traders participating. The on-chain Polydata mid-price for YES remains elevated at 96.4%, significantly above the Polymarket Breaking feed’s 30.0%, underscoring the divergence between on-chain data and the live market price.
This split between whale flow and price movement suggests that while retail or broader market participants are sharply lowering the probability of 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by the deadline, whales are accumulating YES positions, possibly anticipating a different outcome or pricing inefficiency. The combined data points to a complex market dynamic where large traders and price action are temporarily at odds, signaling a period of heightened uncertainty or repositioning in this geopolitical shipping question.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +65.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 30.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 95.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $29K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $55K / $26K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 68 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $36K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 141 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.