Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 303 stories.
Polymarket's contract on Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by July 31 saw YES price fall from 66.5% to 42.5%, with whale flow diverging from the price move.
Whales contributed $6K net buying as the market price surged from 81.6% to near certainty in 24 hours.
Whale activity aligned with the price surge, reinforcing the shift in market sentiment on Polymarket.
Whale activity and market prices climbed in tandem, signaling a sharp reassessment of conflict risk on July 13.
Whales bought $9K into YES contracts as market price and whale flow moved in sync, pushing odds sharply higher.
Whale trading diverged from the 18.0pp fall in YES price, signaling mixed signals on Bitcoin's July target.
Polymarket's YES contract for Iran targeting shipping drops from 23.3% to 7.0% despite no whale buying, signaling conflicting market signals.
Despite a sharp 20.4 percentage point drop in YES price, whale activity did not follow the downward repricing on Polymarket.
Polymarket's contract on 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, saw a sharp 27.5 percentage point drop in YES price amid opposing whale activity.
Whale betting aligned with price surge as Polymarket market sees $13K volume in 24 hours.
