Whales
$759K Whale Inflow into Norway 2026 World Cup Bet Contrasts 5.9% Market Price
Whale activity signals a divergence from prevailing market odds in the Norway 2026 World Cup winner market.
Jul 10
#%swhale activity
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 90 stories.
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds plunge 20.5 pp as whale buying diverges from price
Polymarket’s “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?” YES contract dropped from 22.0% to 1.5%, while whales added $5K in net YES bets.
Jul 10
Breaking
OpenAI $1.0T valuation odds drop 24pp to 52.5% despite $3K whale buy-in
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 24 percentage point decline in YES price on Polymarket, highlighting conflicting signals.
Jul 10
Breaking
OpenAI $1.0T valuation market YES price drops 28.5 pp amid whale-flow divergence
Whales increased YES bets by $2K even as contract price fell from 76.5% to 48.0% in 24 hours, signaling conflicting signals.
Jul 10
Breaking
Burna Boy World Cup halftime show odds surge 19.9pp to 98.4% on Polymarket
Whales added $4K to YES contracts as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of Burna Boy performing in 2026.
Jul 9
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds plunge 16.9 pp as whale flow diverges
Despite a sharp 16.9 percentage point drop in YES price, whales increased their net buys by $6K, signaling mixed signals on Iran's July 9 targeting.
Jul 9
Whales
Whales Load $583K on Morocco to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 2.8% Market Price
A $583K net whale inflow into Morocco’s 2026 World Cup win contrasts sharply with the market-implied probability of 2.8%.
Jul 9
Whales
Whales bet $1.47M on Switzerland at 2.1% in 2026 World Cup market
Large whale inflows into ‘Yes’ on Switzerland diverge sharply from market odds in a $117M volume event.
Jul 8
Whales
$391K Net Whale Flow Into YES on Portugal World Cup Win at 0.05% Market Price
Whales have bought $4.17M versus $822K sold on Portugal’s 2026 World Cup win, diverging sharply from the 0.05% market-implied probability.
Jul 7
Whales
Whales Net $539K Into YES on Portugal to Win 2026 World Cup at 0.05% Price
Despite a market-implied probability of just 0.05%, whales have poured $539K net into Portugal's 2026 World Cup win in the past 24 hours, signaling a notable divergence between large trader behavior and market pricing.
Jul 7