The market “Will OpenAI’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?” saw its YES contract price fall sharply by 24.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from 76.5% to 52.5% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed as of July 10, 2026.
Despite this significant decline in the odds, whale activity moved counter to the price trend. Twenty-eight unique whales accounted for a net $3K inflow into YES contracts, with $6K in whale buy volume against $3K in sell volume. This divergence between price and whale flow is notable given the overall 24-hour market volume of $10K and a lifetime market volume of $54K among 133 unique traders.
Adding complexity, the Polydata on-chain midprice for the YES contract stands at 82.5%, markedly higher than the Polymarket Breaking price of 52.5%. This gap suggests differing valuations between real-time market sentiment and on-chain aggregate data.
The combined picture shows a market sharply repricing downwards on the probability that OpenAI will reach a $1.0 trillion valuation by year-end, even as large traders increase their YES positions.
| Market | Will OpenAI’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2299990 |
| 24h price change | +24.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 52.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 76.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 82.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 28 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 133 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.