The Polymarket contract “Will OpenAI’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?” saw a sharp drop in its YES price, falling 28.5 percentage points from 76.5% to 48.0% over the past 24 hours.
Despite this significant price decline, on-chain data reveals a divergence between whale activity and market pricing. Whales collectively added a net $2K into YES positions, with $4K in buy volume against $2K in sells, spread across 24 unique whales. This contrasts with the downward price move, indicating that larger traders are increasing exposure while the broader market is pulling back.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume on this market totaled $8K, contributing to a lifetime trading volume of $52K and involving 129 unique traders overall. Notably, the Polydata on-chain mid-price for YES stands at 90.5%, far above the Polymarket live price of 48.0%, highlighting a substantial discrepancy between on-chain valuation and market prices.
This divergence between whale flow and price suggests uncertainty or differing perspectives on OpenAI’s valuation trajectory. While the market repriced lower odds for hitting a $1.0 trillion valuation by year-end, whale buying activity indicates some continued confidence in that outcome or a strategic positioning that counters the broader price movement.
| Market | Will OpenAI’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2299990 |
| 24h price change | +28.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 48.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 76.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 90.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $2K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $4K / $2K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 24 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 129 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.