Breaking
Iran military action on July 15? YES price jumps 41.5 points with whale backing
Whales contributed $3K net buying as Polymarket odds for Iran-Gulf State conflict nearly doubled in 24 hours.
Jul 15
#%swhale activity
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 90 stories.
Whales
$732K net whale inflow contrasts with 19.4% price on Argentina 2026 World Cup win
Whales bought $3.16M versus $1.02M sold in 24 hours, diverging from the market's sub-20% probability
Jul 15
Whales
Whales Pour $478K Into Argentina Win Bets Despite 17.3% Market Price
A $478K net inflow from whales into Argentina’s 2026 World Cup win contrasts sharply with the market’s 17.3% implied probability.
Jul 14
Breaking
YES price on Strait of Hormuz transit plunges 65.5 pp despite $16K whale inflows
Polymarket’s YES contract for 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, dropped from 95.8% to 30.2% in 24 hours while whale buying increased.
Jul 14
Breaking
Odds for ‘No Next UK Foreign Secretary in 2026’ Jump 22pp to 66.5% on Polymarket
Whale buying aligned with a sharp price rally, pushing the market far above its on-chain midpoint.
Jul 14
Whales
Whales net $356K buying YES on Argentina World Cup win as market price lags at 17.3%
Large whale purchases diverge from market pricing in the Argentina 2026 World Cup winner market, signaling notable insider activity.
Jul 14
Breaking
Houthis shipping attack odds jump 23pp to 37.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price moved in sync as market reassessed risk of Houthis targeting shipping by July 31, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds tumble 25.4 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s 'Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?' market saw a sharp 25.4 percentage point drop in YES price despite $15K whale net buying.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 64.5 pp to 90.8% on Polymarket
Whale bets and price moves aligned as traders sharply increased odds of Iran striking a Gulf State on July 9.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 47.9pp to 74% as whale flow backs surge
The Polymarket contract on Iran's military action against a Gulf State saw a sharp repricing alongside aligned whale bets, signaling heightened conviction.
Jul 13