Breaking
Iran withdrawal from MOU odds drop 26.5 points despite $161K whale bets
Whale buying contrasts sharp 26.5 pp decline in odds for Iran withdrawing from MOU by July 31 on Polymarket.
Jul 15
#%swhale activity
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 90 stories.
Breaking
YES price on no UK Home Secretary in 2026 drops 46pp despite $7K whale buying
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 46 percentage point decline in the market’s YES price to 7%, signaling conflicting signals on the UK Home Secretary question.
Jul 15
Breaking
Messi Golden Ball 2026 YES price jumps 46.1 pp to 90.3% as whales buy $85K
Whale activity aligned with a sharp increase in odds for Messi winning the 2026 Golden Ball, signaling strong market conviction.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?” YES price falls 41.5 pp in 24h
Whale activity diverged from price drop as YES contracts plunged from 55.0% to 13.5% on Polymarket.
Jul 15
Breaking
Odds for Shabana Mahmood as UK Chancellor in 2026 surge 57 pp to 89.8%
Whales backed the sharp rally with $43K net buy flow, pushing the market price from 32.9% to near 90%.
Jul 15
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood’s odds jump 52.9 points to 59.2% with $21K whale inflow
Whales and market trading aligned as YES price surged from 6.3% to 59.2% in 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 15
Breaking
July 2026 hottest month prediction jumps 36 percentage points to 79.5%
Whales supported the sharp rise in odds with $11K net flow into YES contracts amid $17K 24-hour volume on Polymarket.
Jul 15
Breaking
UK Home Secretary Market YES Price Drops 37pp Despite Whale Buying
Whales added $4K net into YES contracts while the market price plunged from 91.5% to 54.5%, signaling a sharp shift in sentiment.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES price jumps 21.5 pp to 90.5%
Whales supported the rally with $22K net flow into YES, matching the strong price move over 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
Sabrina Carpenter World Cup Halftime Show Odds Drop 37.6 Points Despite Whale Buying
The YES contract for Sabrina Carpenter performing at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show fell sharply from 66.5% to 28.9%, while whales increased their net YES exposure by $3K.
Jul 15