The market for “Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?” saw its YES contract price plunge 26.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, dropping from around 40.0% to 13.5%. This dramatic shift came despite whales buying heavily, with $161K net flow into YES positions over the same period.
Whale activity was robust, with $244K in buy volume against $83K in sell volume, spread across 182 unique whales. Notably, total 24-hour volume on Polymarket reached $220K, close to the whale buy volume alone, indicating that whales dominated recent trading. The market’s lifetime volume stands at $2.02M, with 1,736 unique traders participating overall.
The divergence between whale flow and price movement signals conflicting signals: while the tape reflected a sharp drop in the implied probability of Iran withdrawing from the MOU by the deadline, whales increased their exposure to the YES side.
This contrast between price and whale behavior highlights a complex market dynamic. The market appears unsettled, with whales betting on a turnaround even as prices discount the likelihood of withdrawal.
| Market | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643400 |
| 24h price change | +26.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 13.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 40.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 13.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $161K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $244K / $83K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 182 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $220K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,736 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.