Breaking
Odds for US halting Iran offensive by July 24 drop 20pp on Polymarket
Whale trading diverged sharply from price moves as market slashed chances of a US halt in Iran offensive operations.
Jul 19
#%sus-iran
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 14 stories.
Breaking
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? YES Price Drops 34 pp Amid Divergent Whale Flow
While the YES contract price plunged from 56.5% to 22.5%, whale trading flow moved against this sell-off, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 16
Breaking
US Iran Blockade Market YES Price Surges 67.2pp to 99.8% with $365K Whale Net Flow
Whales and price moved in sync as the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31 soared sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 17.5pp despite $48K whale buying
Whale purchases of $48K in ‘YES’ contracts contrast with a sharp 17.5 percentage point decline in Polymarket price.
Jul 12
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 15pp to 30.5% despite $47K whale bets
Whale trading flow diverged from price action as market odds fell sharply on Polymarket in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? YES price drops 16pp despite $40K whale inflow
Whales bought $40K into YES as Polymarket’s Breaking price plunged from 58.5% to 42.5%, signaling a sharp market reassessment.
Jul 12
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 20pp despite $41K whale buy flow
Whale buying on the US-Iran diplomatic meeting market diverged from a sharp 20pp decline in YES price over 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 17pp to 48.5% with whale buying aligned
Whales added $22K to YES in a $48K volume surge as Polymarket prices rose sharply.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 21 pp to 52.5% amid $22K whale bets
Whales pushed net $22K into YES contracts as Polymarket prices for a US blockade on Iran by August 31 rose sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 22pp amid whale flow-price divergence
Whales bought $43K in YES contracts even as the market price fell 22 percentage points in 24 hours.
Jul 12