The market on a US x Iran effective ceasefire by July 31% saw its YES contract price drop sharply by 34.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from 56.5% to 22.5% as of July 17, 2026. This dramatic repricing marks a swift reassessment of the likelihood of a ceasefire within this timeframe.
Contrary to the price movement, whale trading flow diverged from the sell-off, indicating that large traders were not reinforcing the downward momentum. This divergence between the price and whale activity suggests that while the broader market sentiment shifted decisively lower, major traders either held their positions or moved against the price trend.
Trading volume for the market in the last 24 hours totaled $23K, reflecting moderate engagement in this contract amid the volatility. The conflicting signals between price and whale flow highlight uncertainty and a lack of consensus on the ceasefire prospects.
Such a sharp drop in implied probability combined with opposing whale behavior underscores a complex market dynamic.
| Market | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2937525 |
| 24h price change | +34.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 22.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 56.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $23K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.