Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Plunge 30.7 Points in 24 Hours on Polymarket
Despite a sharp 30.6 pp drop in YES price, whale activity diverged by not backing the decline in SpaceX launch odds.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 76 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 70.5 points to 80% as whales back surge
Whale activity matched a sharp repricing in the Polymarket market on Iran's potential Gulf military action July 12
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade market YES price jumps 23.5pp to 45% with $160K whale inflow
Whale trading aligned with a sharp rally in the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31, doubling the market’s odds in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
“0 ships transit Hormuz by July 14?” YES price jumps 16.9 pp to 19.0% with $13K whale inflow
Whales and overall market moved in tandem as odds climbed sharply from 2.1% to 19.0% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on Strait of Hormuz ship transit drops 17 pp amid whale flow divergence
The market for 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, saw a sharp 17 pp decline in YES price while whale activity moved against the price trend.
Jul 11
Breaking
YES price plunges 68.2pp to 2.4% on Grok model debut score market amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s contract on xAI’s Grok model scoring at least 1460 by end-2026 sharply reprices as whale activity contradicts price movement.
Jul 11
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds drop 21pp despite whale buying
YES contract for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026 fell from 44.0% to 23.0% while whale flow diverged, signaling mixed market signals.
Jul 11
Breaking
Odds for xAI’s next Grok model debuting above 1460 score plunge 68.3pp in 24h
Whale activity diverged from the steep drop in YES price, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 11
Breaking
Mbappé’s World Cup goal contributions market jumps 35.5pp to 74.5% on Polymarket
Whales backed the surge with $3K net buys into YES, pushing odds sharply higher in 24 hours.
Jul 10
Breaking
“Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” YES jumps 35pp to 83% on aligned whale flow
Whales and retail traders pushed the probability sharply higher to 83%, reflecting growing confidence in imminent disclosure.
Jul 10