The market for “0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 14?” saw its YES contract price surge 16.9 percentage points within 24 hours, rising from approximately 2.1% to 19.0% as of the latest Polymarket Breaking feed snapshot on July 12, 2026. This sharp repricing was accompanied by whale activity that aligned with the price move, with net whale inflows totaling $13K into YES positions during the same period.
Whales contributed $36K in buy volume against $23K in sell volume across 48 unique whale participants, indicating a strong directional conviction that matched the broader market’s increasing belief in the event. Total Polymarket volume for the market over 24 hours was $25K, while lifetime market volume reached $52K with 99 unique traders involved, highlighting a concentrated but active trading base.
Interestingly, this Polymarket YES price of 19.0% stands notably above the Polydata on-chain midpoint price of 5.5%, suggesting that the public market sentiment captured by Polymarket contracts is currently more bullish on the occurrence of zero ships transiting Hormuz by the deadline. The combined surge in price and aligned whale flow points to a rapid reassessment of the likelihood of this outcome among large traders and the wider market.
This repricing and whale participation suggest that traders have recently incorporated new information or reassessed risks related to shipping through Hormuz, driving a significant shift in the market’s odds. The convergence of whale flow with price movement underlines a coordinated market response rather than a divergence, signaling increased confidence in the event’s possibility over a short period.
| Market | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 14? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2696759 |
| 24h price change | +16.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 19.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 2.1% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 5.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $13K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $36K / $23K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 48 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $25K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 99 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.