Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 Extension Odds Jump 25.5 Points on Polymarket
Whale activity and price moves aligned as the probability of plan extension rose sharply to 60.5%.
Jul 16
#%sprice movement
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 133 stories.
Breaking
Odds for no UK Foreign Secretary in 2026 plunge 22pp despite $3K whale buying
Whales increased YES bets by $3K while market probability for no next Foreign Secretary dropped sharply from 39.5% to 17.5%.
Jul 16
Breaking
Odds for Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 Access Extension Jump 31.5pp to 66.5% in 24h
Whale buying aligned with price surge as market reassesses likelihood of extension by July 19.
Jul 16
Breaking
Ostium FDV Above $100M Market YES Price Drops 15.5 Points Amid Whale Support for NO
Whales aligned with a 15.5 pp decline in YES price, pushing odds from 29.5% to 14.0% on $6K 24h volume.
Jul 16
Breaking
YES price jumps 32.5 pp to 91% on Over $30M Credible public sale market
Whales contributed a net $54K buying YES contracts alongside the sharp 24-hour price rise.
Jul 16
Breaking
UK Home Secretary 2026 Market YES Price Drops 32.5 Points Despite Whale Buying
Whales increased YES bets by $7K even as the market price for no next UK Home Secretary in 2026 fell sharply from 52.5% to 20%.
Jul 16
Breaking
Post Malone World Cup halftime show odds plunge 39pp as whale flow diverges
Despite a sharp 39.0 pp drop in YES price, whale buying activity moved counter to the market's repricing on Polymarket.
Jul 16
Breaking
YES price on Hormuz transit drops 19.9pp as whale flow diverges
The market for 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, fell sharply despite whales increasing YES bets.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 53pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract dropped from 90.0% to 37.0% despite whale buying diverging from price
Jul 15
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on Russia capturing Pokrovka jumps 90.8 pp to 97.9%
Whales supported the sharp rise with $15K net inflow into YES amid $58K total 24h volume on the market.
Jul 15