The market on whether Anthropic will extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19 saw a significant surge in its YES price, rising 25.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours from 35.0% to 60.5%. This sharp repricing signals a substantial shift in market expectation about the likelihood of an extension.
Notably, whale flow moved in alignment with this price increase, confirming the upward trend rather than opposing it. This concurrence between large traders and the market tape suggests that confidence in the extension grew broadly across different participant types.
Trading volume for the contract reached $18K in the same period, indicating a healthy level of engagement around this question. The price jump combined with aligned whale activity points to a meaningful reassessment of the event’s probability as the July 19 deadline approaches.
Overall, the synchronized rise in price and whale support highlights a marked shift in sentiment on the Polymarket platform, reflecting growing conviction that Anthropic will extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access once again. This move stands out in the latest 24-hour trading dynamics and sets a new baseline for market expectations heading into the final days before the cutoff.
| Market | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2898504 |
| 24h price change | +25.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 60.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 35.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $18K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.