Breaking
Russia Capture of Kostyantynivka Jumps 28.5pp to 55% on Polymarket
Whales supported a sharp shift in odds, doubling the YES price with $28K net inflow amid $51K 24-hour volume.
Jul 12
#%sprice-move
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 533 stories.
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 Extension YES Price Surges 71.5pp to 100%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp market repricing on Polymarket, confirming near-certainty of an extension by July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds for Strait of Hormuz Transit Drop Range Jump 17.7pp to 43.5%
Whale betting aligned with price surge as Polymarket market sees $13K volume in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 jump 35pp to 61.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with sharp price rise as market recalibrated odds on Russian advance
Jul 12
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension YES price jumps 80pp to 99.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price action aligned as market sharply repriced likelihood of Claude Fable 5 paid-plan extension by July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action probability jumps 83.5 points to 90% on July 12 market
Polymarket’s contract on Iran taking military action against a Gulf State sees aligned whale flow and a surge in odds to 90%.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds spike 87 points to 93.5% on Polymarket
Whale trading backed the rapid jump in probability for Iran’s military action against a Gulf State on July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action on July 12? YES jumps 83.5 pp to 90.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour repricing from 7.0% to 90.5%, signaling strong market conviction.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price surges 15.5 points to 92.5% on United Left primary cancellation market
Whales aligned with the price rally, adding a net $4K into YES as Polymarket sharply reprices the 2026 French presidential primary question.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 79pp to 85.5% on July 12
Whale activity and price movement aligned as probability surged from 6.5% to 85.5% within 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 12