Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka odds drop 26.5 pp despite $21K whale bets
Sharp 24-hour decline in YES price diverges from whale buying activity on Polymarket’s Kostyantynivka market.
Jul 13
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?” YES price falls 17pp despite $22K whale buying
Polymarket’s YES price dropped from 59.5% to 42.5% in 24 hours while whales accumulated $22K, revealing a divergence between price and whale flow.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” YES price jumps 16.6 pp to 91.2%
Whales added $7K net to YES contracts as market odds surged from 74.6% to 91.2% in 24 hours
Jul 13
Breaking
YES price jumps 25.5 pp to 37% on UK Culture Secretary market as whales back the move
Polymarket’s contract on no next UK Culture Secretary in 2026 sees aligned whale buying and a sharp odds shift.
Jul 13
Breaking
Will Gracie Abrams attending Taylor Swift’s wedding jumps 15.7pp to 97.3% on Polymarket
Whales pushed $4K into YES contracts, reinforcing a sharp 24-hour price rise on the celebrity event market.
Jul 13
Breaking
Betty Gilpin Emmy Guest Actress Odds Drop 22.1pp to 43.4% Despite Whale Selling
Polymarket data shows a sharp 22.1 percentage point fall in YES price for Betty Gilpin’s Emmy nod, with whale flow moving against the price trend.
Jul 13
Breaking
Anthropic Math AI market jumps 25pp as whales buy $3K into YES
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour price rise boosting YES to 78.5% on Polymarket.
Jul 13
Whales
$285K Net Whale Flow into YES on Argentina World Cup Win Against 17.9% Market Price
Whales have pushed $285K net into YES bets for Argentina despite a market-implied probability of just 17.9%, highlighting divergence between big traders and the broader market.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds jump 50pp to 66.8% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with sharp rise in market-implied probability for Iran Gulf conflict on July 9
Jul 13
Breaking
Mitch McConnell Senate vote odds jump 19.5 pp to 33% with whale support
Polymarket’s “Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?” market doubled its odds as whale flow reinforced the price surge.
Jul 13