Breaking
Fed rate hold odds drop 16pp to 63.5% as whale buying diverges from price move
Polymarket's 'no change in Fed rates after July 2026' market saw a sharp price fall despite nearly $900K whale inflows into YES contracts
Jul 13
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Sara Rodriguez’s 2026 Wisconsin Governor primary odds drop 16.5 pp despite $13K whale buys
Whales bought $16K into YES contracts even as the market price fell from 35.0% to 18.5% over 24 hours, signaling a split between price action and whale flow.
Jul 13
Breaking
Polymarket Odds for Israel-Lebanon Diplomatic Meeting by July 14 Jump 45pp to 82.5%
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 24-hour rise in market confidence for a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon by mid-2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Houthis Shipping Target Market Jumps 20pp to 34.5% on Whale-Aligned Bets
Polymarket’s contract on Houthis targeting shipping by July 31, 2026, saw a sharp 20.0 pp rise in YES price with whale activity confirming the move.
Jul 13
Breaking
Pamela Evette’s Nomination Odds Drop 27pp to 9.5% Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Polymarket’s South Carolina Senate GOP nominee market saw a sharp 27.0 pp decline in YES price while whale bets moved against the price trend.
Jul 13
Breaking
Ethereum $1,900 July Market YES Price Drops 21pp Despite $6K Whale Inflow
Whales bought $9K into YES contracts even as Polymarket’s price fell sharply from 63.5% to 42.5%, signaling divergent sentiment.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action market jumps 48.1 pp to 85.4% on aligned whale flow
Polymarket's Iran military action contract surged as whales increased YES bets, pushing odds sharply higher in 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
YES price surges 40pp to 76.5% on $30M Credible public sale market with whale flow supporting move
Whales contributed a net $14K into YES as Polymarket’s price jumped from 36.5% to 76.5%, signaling strong conviction in the public sale outcome.
Jul 13
Breaking
Alexandru Nazare PM Odds Drop 17.5pp as Whale Flow Diverges
While the YES price for Nazare’s premiership fell sharply, whales increased their net buys by $4K, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 13
Breaking
Houthis Shipping Attack Odds Surge 28pp to 50% on Polymarket
Whale bets moved in sync with a sharp jump in the market’s probability for successful Houthi strikes by August 31, 2026.
Jul 13