The probability that Pamela Evette will become the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina fell sharply by 27.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours, declining from 36.5% to 9.5%, according to Polymarket’s Breaking feed on July 14.
Despite this steep drop in the YES price, whale activity diverged from the price movement, with large bettors not increasing their net position in favor of Evette. This divergence between the tape and whale flow signals a complex market dynamic, where retail or smaller traders appear to be pushing Evette’s odds lower, while whales are not following suit.
The total 24-hour volume on the market reached $10K, indicating moderate trading interest but no overwhelming consensus shift among major players. The disconnect between price and whale flow often points to potential repositioning or uncertainty among informed traders, contrasting with broader market sentiment.
This combination of a dramatic odds decline and countervailing whale behavior suggests that while Evette’s chances are being repriced sharply downward, serious bettors remain cautious about fully discounting her chances. The market is signaling a contested outlook rather than a uniform consensus on her nomination prospects.
| Market | Will Pamela Evette be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2896075 |
| 24h price change | +27.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 9.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 36.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.