Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 16.1 pp to 97.0% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price action aligned as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 14
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
“Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?” YES jumps 16.0 pp to 58.5% with $18K whale support
Whales increased exposure to YES as Polymarket odds surged from 42.5% to 58.5%, signaling strong conviction in the market move.
Jul 14
Breaking
US Iran oil sanction relief odds plunge 39.5 pp despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?” market sees a sharp price drop while whale flow bucks the trend.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran Hormuz fees market jumps 15.5pp as whales push YES to 72%
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour price rise in the Iran Hormuz fees market, lifting odds to 72%.
Jul 14
Breaking
Houthis Shipping Target Market Jumps 25.5 Points to 40.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in odds for Houthis successfully targeting shipping by July 31, 2026.
Jul 14
Breaking
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? YES price drops 30 pp despite whale bets
The market’s YES contract plunged from 37.5% to 7.5% in 24 hours while whale flow moved against the price trend.
Jul 14
Whales
$253K Net Whale Flow Bets on Spain to Win 2026 World Cup Against 21.1% Market Odds
Whales purchased $1.42M worth of YES shares in the Spain 2026 World Cup market despite a market-implied probability of just 21.1%.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran Hormuz Fees Market Jumps 15.5pp to 23.5% as Whale Flow Supports Move
The market for Iran imposing Hormuz fees by July 31 saw a sharp rise in YES price, backed by aligned whale activity amid $25K volume.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 40pp to 84.5% with whale buying support
Whales added $3K net to YES as Polymarket prices in a sharp jump on July 14 Gulf conflict risk.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 39.6 points to 100% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with a sharp market revaluation, pushing the contract to full certainty within 24 hours.
Jul 14